To consider the report of the Business Continuity and Risk Management Officer.
Minutes:
Documents:
· Report of the Business Continuity and Risk Management Officer
· Risk Register (Q3)
· Summary
· Heat Map
Discussion:
· The register reflects the position as at 15 March 2018
· Two risks had been removed – CR3 (inadequate corporate governance arrangements) had been removed following implementation of a new model, and CR5 (lack of a clear definition and structure to support the commissioning and commercial vision) removed now that the commercial services team is fully embedded
· Six new risks had been added:
o CR19 – GDPR noncompliance – this comes into force on 25 May 2018 and failure to comply could result in a significant fine
o CS11 – failure to meet a statutory deadline regarding training to raise awareness of domestic violence. There had been a poor take up of staff undertaking the training
o ASC18 – recruitment to Adult Services
o ASC19 – projected demographics – it was noted that this was not due to an increased risk of demand but by a decrease in the available workforce to provide services
o ASC22 – BUPA contract expires and new management needs to be agreed and implemented
· Work continues on business continuity and a new policy is being drafted – this will be available for comment by Audit Committee
· The framework for Impact Assessments will also be updated
· The Chair reported that he and the Vice Chair had been concerned by the lack of comment by the Strategic Overview Board regarding ASC19 despite it being in the ‘catastrophic’ category. The Vice Chair reported that the Office of National Statistics had reported that in the period 2001 to 2011, the adult population over 65 had increased by 14% but that the increase of residential care clients had only increased by 0.4%. The relatively static population of residential care clients is confirmed by Stats Wales. It was important to break the link between demographics and demand in social care. There is a similar concern regarding data for those with learning disabilities – these numbers are steadily falling. The decrease in available workforce was acknowledged but determining this as ‘catastrophic’ was challenged given that the workforce was likely to reduce from 73800 in 2018 to 72800 in 2020. It was thought that the immediate threat was no more than that allocated to ASC18
· It was suggested that ASC18 reflected the current position but that ASC19 depicted a future crisis
· This is likely to be a corporate problem and further discussions are needed
· Complexities of care need to be understood
· Working age is rising to 67
· Carers of an ageing population are also ageing
· Over 85s are predicted to increase from 5200 now to 11200 in 2035 which would allow time for planning to take place
· It was suggested that the private sector was not experiencing the same difficulties in recruitment as more flexible employment opportunities could be offered
· Members also suggested that Brexit could have an impact depending on visa arrangements post Brexit. Wales as whole, and rural areas in particular, were more likely to be adversely affected by recruitment difficulties.
The Head of Transformation (People) joined the meeting
· The issues surrounding ASC19 were a concern and posed a significant risk to both ASC and the Council as a whole
· The increase in older residents was a separate risk and further debate could be had regarding whether demand will increase
· The working population (ie those aged between 16 and 64) is expected to decline from 77200 in 2014 to 73500 2018 and projected to drop to 56000 representing a significant and rapid decline
· This will have a significant effect on both recruitment and other issues such as council tax etc
· The Head of Transformation reported that there was currently 750 hours of domiciliary care that cannot be provided for. There was also a recruitment problem in the private sector. The Head of Transformation has agreed an increase in hours for the in-house team and reablement staff. Additional staff may be brought in but accommodation will have to be provided.
· In Radnorshire alone, two years ago between 20 and 30 hours care could not be provided – today this is 370 hours
· Other measures were being taken to address the issue – for example, work with Occupational Therapists to reduce double handling, and reassessing packages
· There were difficulties in retaining care staff as well as recruitment
· Although the workforce is currently 80% female there is a growing number of male carers
· Minimum wage is paid in an attempt to reduce costs and it was thought that some carers felt undervalued
· From next year, all carers will be regulated by Social Care Wales
· It is hoped that a university will undertake some work regarding workforce resources
· It was noted that a there were many job vacancies for personal assistants
· The Health Authority is also experiencing difficulties
· It was suggested that if recruitment at higher levels was more successful, it may be easier to recruit at lower levels
Outcome:
· ASC19 be reworded but remain in the catastrophic category
· A working group be established to consider the issue
Supporting documents: